UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)
Page 9 of 10

Author:  Jonah [ Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

Boom again

Author:  Leewave [ Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

Aha! They are getting more antsy!

Anyway Mr Google came to my rescue, he supplied this direct link to the article

Brexit delivers a shuddering blow to UK economic data

Author:  Leewave [ Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

However, On clicking my link again it comes back to the Paywall

So while I have it open in one tab here is a copy of the text with a couple of the images thrown in.

Chris Giles, Economics Editor FINANCIAL TIMES wrote:
Brexit delivers a shuddering blow to UK economic data

Chancellor tries to put on brave face as ONS releases unexpectedly poor figures

For more than two years, Brexit has dominated British politics, but has often been quite hard to spot in the economic data. That came to an end on Monday.

With four consecutive quarters of declining business investment, 2018 recording the lowest annual growth rate of the economy since the financial crisis of 2009 and a slump in output last December of 0.4 per cent, the effects of Brexit were stamped all over the national accounts data published by the Office for National Statistics.

Economists have been calculating the Brexit effect on the economy for more than a year and most agree that it has cost Britain between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

The lower figure comes from a comparison of growth since the 2016 EU referendum and previous forecasts based on a Remain victory. The higher figure arises from a comparison of Britain’s economic performance and other comparable countries that in the past have given similar figures.

The Resolution Foundation on Monday estimated that higher inflation and lower growth since 2016 had led real household incomes to be on average £1,500, or 4.1 per cent, lower than they would have been had Britain voted to stay in the EU.


But rigorous as these assessments are, sacrificed growth feels different from a drop in incomes, employment or GDP and none of these have yet happened. But the national accounts indicated that a recession is becoming much more likely.

JPMorgan calculated that unless it stages a recovery, the economy is on course for a contraction of 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of the year and highlighted this as the “downside risk” to its first quarter forecast of 0.2 per cent growth.

The Bank of England last week estimated a one in four chance of a recession in the first half of 2019 and that was without knowledge of the latest data, which were significantly worse than expected.


Economists on Monday admitted being surprised by the weakness in the UK economy, which performed only better than Italy among leading economies in 2018, and began to revise down their forecasts for the year.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, put a brave face on the figures, pointing out that at least the economy was still growing. “The UK’s economy continues to grow and remains fundamentally strong. Growth of 1.4 per cent in 2018 means the UK has grown every year for the past nine years and the Office for Budget Responsibility expects it to continue growing in every year of the forecast,” he said, referring to the outlook that runs until 2023.

Within government, he and Greg Clark, the business secretary, are making a different argument, blaming Brexit uncertainty for the deteriorating economy. He called last week for clarity “in the next few days” because “the last minute for important exporters is fast approaching”.

The urgency of the matter for certain sectors was demonstrated in the detail of the 2018 figures. An expected drop in automotive sector output was matched by a surprise 3.9 per cent decline in output in the aviation sector, only the second drop for the sector since the recession of 2008.

VideoUK growth slows as Brexit looms

Paul Everitt, chief executive of ADS, the aerospace, defence and security industry body, said: “The real impact of Brexit uncertainty is now becoming all too clear — falling UK aerospace production, despite increasing global demand and a highly supportive national industrial strategy”.

Business services held up in the final quarter of the year, but consumer-oriented services such as hotels, shops and restaurants expanded only 0.3 per cent compared with 1 per cent in the previous three months quarter on quarter.

Another of the concerning features of the data were the decline in exports, which were 0.9 per cent lower than a year earlier, while imports were 1.7 per cent higher, showing that despite sterling’s weakness since the Leave vote, businesses have not used additional competitiveness to increase investment, capacity and exports.

Economists said it was again most likely to be a Brexit effect that was hindering companies from making the investments needed to export when the trading environment was so uncertain, but the global trade slowdown was also undermining growth in companies selling abroad.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “The widening in the UK’s trade deficit is further evidence that slowing global growth and continued uncertainty over Brexit are making trading conditions for UK exporters more challenging”.

With challenging economic times ahead, financial markets again marked down the probability of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year. In trading on interest rate futures markets, investors now think there is only a 35 per cent chance of any interest rate rise this year, down from 45 per cent as recently as last Thursday.

Instead, markets are now anticipating what the chancellor will do in his spring statement on March 13. He has so far insisted that this will not be a “Budget” or a significant “fiscal event”, but just an update of the OBR’s forecasts for the economy and the public finances.

He has, however, kept open the prospect of injecting a stimulus to the economy if the economic situation warrants it. The fallout of the Brexit uncertainty could be eased with the government further loosening the purse strings and with much more data like that released on Monday a more active statement in mid-March will become ever more likely.

Author:  jezza [ Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

mooblie wrote:
76% Remain to 24% Leave. No undecided. Fascinating.

Can't argue with facts.

Well, some people do.

Still no input from any folks that have changed their mind.

I'm almost on the edge of swapping to 'undecided'

It may be the best and sanest option.

Author:  loughor [ Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

mooblie wrote:
76% Remain to 24% Leave. No undecided. Fascinating.

Not in the slightest fascinating, I'm afraid. Hardly a representative sample of the UK electorate. All you can take from that is that is how 21 of the 809 forum members who visit regularly, are mostly Apple users and could be arsed to express an opinion were split.

It isn't even statistically significant by any measure of mathematics or straw polls.

Author:  jezza [ Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

It's just a bit of fun on the internet.

Reminder: Leave won.

If only they would cheer up and get the party started.

Blow up some balloons, get the cucumber sarnies out, crack open some nice British Fizzy wine.


Author:  Mike Smith [ Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)


Author:  jezza [ Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

Not long to go now.

Doomsday Clock

Author:  BDAqua [ Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)


Author:  mooblie [ Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)


Author:  Leewave [ Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

There should be another question(s), Do you think it was right to call a referendum on this complicated subject?
Was it wise? Was it foolish? Was it just for politics?

Author:  BDAqua [ Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

Maxim was reported to have said: "In 1882 I was in Vienna, where I met an American whom I had known in the States. He said: 'Hang your chemistry and electricity! If you want to make a pile of money, invent something that will enable these Europeans to cut each others' throats with greater facility.

Author:  jezza [ Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

The Hiram Maxim hair-curling iron ?

Author:  BDAqua [ Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

The Maxim gun was a weapon invented by American-born British inventor Hiram Stevens Maxim in 1884: it was the first recoil-operated machine gun in production. It has been called "the weapon most associated with the British imperial conquest", and likewise was used in colonial wars by other countries between 1886 and 1914.

The iron could very easily be hair curling in use! :)

Author:  jezza [ Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: UK ~ GB and NI and the EU (part 2)

... still all going to plan then?

Page 9 of 10 All times are UTC
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group